Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

29d 11h left
Yes1.8¢
No98.3¢
24h Vol$261K
Total Vol$1.8M
Liquidity$186K

Price History

No price history available

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
YES 54%NO 47%
fomc

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

VOL$355K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
YES 42%NO 59%
fomc

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

VOL$290K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
YES 4%NO 96%
fomc

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

VOL$191K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
YES 2%NO 98%
fomc

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

VOL$130K
summaryMarket Summary

Priced at 1% to increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting

The market currently prices a 1% chance of the Fed increasing interest rates by 50+ basis points after the September 2026 meeting, with $116k in volume traded over the past 24 hours. Recent news has focused on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's consideration of fewer annual FOMC meetings and the potential impact on Wall Street. Despite some reports suggesting a rate hike is still possible, particularly if inflation persists, the current odds reflect a low likelihood of such an increase. The Fed's stance on inflation and interest rates remains a topic of discussion, with some officials keeping an open mind on rates while others argue against a hike.

Priced at 1% to increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting

The market currently prices a 1% chance that the Fed will increase interest rates by 50+ basis points after the September 2026 meeting, with $115k in volume traded over the past 24 hours. Recent statements from Fed officials, including Chair Kevin Warsh and others, have emphasized a commitment to fighting inflation, but the overall outlook remains uncertain. The Fed's potential decision will depend on upcoming inflation reports and other economic data. Despite some volatility in gold prices and currency markets, the current odds reflect a low expectation of a significant rate hike in September.

Priced at 1% to increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting

The Federal Reserve is currently priced at a 1% chance of increasing interest rates by 50 basis points or more after the September 2026 meeting. Recent news has focused on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's consideration of fewer annual FOMC meetings, which could lead to potential volatility. The Fed has also been under scrutiny for its independence, with President Trump reportedly calling Warsh to discuss the economy. Despite this, the chances of a rate hike in September have decreased following a soft jobs report.

Priced at 1% to increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting

The Federal Reserve is currently priced at a 1% chance of increasing interest rates by 50 basis points or more after the September 2026 meeting. Recent news has focused on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's consideration of fewer annual FOMC meetings, which could lead to market volatility. The 24-hour volume is $106k, with no large trades above $100k reported. The Fed's stance on interest rates remains uncertain, with some officials keeping an 'open mind' on rate policy amid high inflation.

Priced at 1% to increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting

The Federal Reserve is currently priced at a 1% chance of increasing interest rates by 50 basis points or more after the September 2026 meeting, with $232k in 24-hour volume. Recent news has focused on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's consideration of fewer annual FOMC meetings and his commitment to combating inflation. Despite this, the odds of a rate hike in September have decreased, with some analysts citing a soft jobs report as a factor. The Fed's stance on interest rates remains a topic of discussion, with President Trump's frequent communication with Chair Warsh raising questions about the central bank's independence.

Priced at 1% to increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting

The market currently prices a 1% chance of the Fed increasing interest rates by 50+ basis points after the September 2026 meeting, with $254k in volume traded over the past 24 hours. Recent statements from Fed officials, including Chairman Kevin Warsh and others, have emphasized a focus on inflation and the potential for rate adjustments. However, the current low odds suggest that a significant rate hike is not widely anticipated. The Fed's approach under Chairman Warsh's leadership continues to be closely watched, especially given discussions about potential reforms and the impact of external factors like US-Iran talks on economic expectations.

Priced at 1% to increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting

The Federal Reserve is currently priced at a 1% chance of increasing interest rates by 50 basis points or more after the September 2026 meeting. Recent news has focused on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's consideration of fewer annual FOMC meetings and his commitment to combating inflation. Despite this, the odds of a rate hike in September have decreased, with some analysts citing a soft jobs report as a factor. The 24-hour volume for this market is $271,000.

Priced at 1% to increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting

The Federal Reserve is currently priced at a 1% chance of increasing interest rates by 50 basis points or more after the September 2026 meeting, with $284k in 24-hour volume. Recent news has focused on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's consideration of fewer annual FOMC meetings and his commitment to combating inflation. The market remains cautious, with some analysts pointing to a soft jobs report as reducing the urgency for a rate hike in September. However, the Fed's stance on inflation and interest rates remains a key focus for investors.

Priced at 1% to increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting

The Federal Reserve is currently priced at 1% to increase interest rates by 50 basis points or more after the September 2026 meeting, with $824k in 24-hour volume. Recent statements from Fed officials, including Chairman Kevin Warsh and others, indicate a cautious approach to interest rate policy amid high inflation. The chances of a rate hike in September have decreased following a soft jobs report, with upcoming inflation reports being a key focus for Fed officials. The Fed's stance on interest rates remains uncertain, with some officials keeping an 'open mind' on rate policy outlook.

Priced at 1% to increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting

The Federal Reserve is currently priced at a 1% chance of increasing interest rates by 50 basis points or more after the September 2026 meeting, with $916k in 24-hour volume. Recent statements from Fed officials, including Chairman Kevin Warsh and others, have emphasized a focus on inflation and the potential for rate adjustments. However, the current low odds suggest the market anticipates a more stable rate environment. The Fed's consideration of fewer annual meetings and the impact of US-Iran talks on inflation fears have contributed to the market's stance.

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