Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

29d 11h left
Yes
No98¢
24h Vol$130K
Total Vol$1.9M
Liquidity$484K

Price History

No price history available

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
YES 54%NO 47%
fomc

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

VOL$355K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
YES 42%NO 59%
fomc

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

VOL$290K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
YES 2%NO 98%
fomc

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

VOL$261K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
YES 4%NO 96%
fomc

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

VOL$191K
summaryMarket Summary

Priced at 1% to decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting

The Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision left rates unchanged, and the market reflects a low likelihood of a 50+ basis point decrease after the September 2026 meeting. Recent statements from FOMC officials, including Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, have warned of the risks of waiting too long to act against inflation. The current odds of a decrease are 1%, with $47k in 24-hour volume. The Fed's plan to boost mutual bank growth and potential changes to FOMC meeting frequency are also being closely watched.

Priced at 1% to decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting

The Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision has left rates unchanged, with two officials dissenting against the decision, warning that waiting too long to act against inflation could risk the need for even more aggressive policy later. The current odds of a 50+ bps decrease after the September 2026 meeting are 1%, with $187k in 24-hour volume. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is considering reforms, including fewer annual FOMC meetings, which could have significant implications for the stock market. The Fed's initial August inflation forecast has also raised concerns about inflationary pressures on Wall Street.

Priced at 1% to decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting

The Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision has left rates unchanged, with two officials dissenting against the decision to hold rates steady, citing concerns about waiting too long to act against inflation. The current odds of a 50+ bps decrease after the September 2026 meeting are 1%, with $262k in 24-hour volume. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is considering reforms, including fewer annual FOMC meetings, which could have significant implications for the stock market. The Fed's initial August inflation forecast has also raised concerns about inflationary pressures on Wall Street.

Priced at 1% to decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting

The Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision has left rates unchanged, with two officials dissenting against the decision, warning that waiting too long to act against inflation could risk the need for more aggressive policy later. The current odds of a 50+ bps decrease after the September 2026 meeting remain low at 1%. The 24-hour volume is $218k, indicating some market activity. The Fed's recent actions and statements suggest a cautious approach to interest rate changes, with some officials advocating for restraint in current policy.

Priced at 1% to decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting

The Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting has been met with concern from Wall Street, with some officials warning that waiting too long to act against inflation could risk the need for even more aggressive policy later. The current odds of a 50+ bps decrease after the September 2026 meeting remain low at 1%, with $204k in 24-hour volume. Recent statements from FOMC officials, including Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, have highlighted the risks of inflation and the need for potential action. The Fed's plan to boost mutual bank growth and consideration of fewer annual FOMC meetings have also been unveiled, but their impact on interest rates remains uncertain.

Priced at 1% to decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting

The Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision has left rates unchanged, with two officials dissenting against the decision, warning that waiting too long to act against inflation could risk the need for even more aggressive policy later. The current odds of a 50+ bps decrease after the September 2026 meeting remain low at 1%. The 24-hour volume is $204k, indicating some market activity. The Fed's recent actions and statements suggest a cautious approach to interest rate changes, with some officials advocating for restraint in current policy.

Priced at 1% to decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting

The Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision has left rates unchanged, with two FOMC officials warning that waiting too long to act against inflation could risk the need for even more aggressive policy later. The current odds of a 50+ bps decrease after the September 2026 meeting remain low at 1%, with $202k in 24-hour volume. Recent statements from FOMC officials, including Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, highlight the concern over inflation. The Fed's decision has significant implications for the stock market, with some warning of a potential credibility shock for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Priced at 1% to decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting

The Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting has left the market with a 1% chance of a 50+ bps decrease after the September 2026 meeting. Recent statements from FOMC officials, including Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, have warned that waiting too long to act against inflation could risk the need for more aggressive policy later. With $190k in 24-hour volume, the market remains skeptical of a rate cut. The Fed's latest actions and statements have significant implications for the stock market, with some officials calling for restraint in current policy.

Priced at 1% to decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting

The Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged has sparked concerns about inflation, with some officials warning that waiting too long to act could risk the need for more aggressive policy later. The current odds of a 50+ bps decrease after the September 2026 meeting remain low at 1%. Recent statements from FOMC officials, including Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, highlight the risks of delaying action against inflation. The 24-hour volume of $202k indicates ongoing market interest in the outcome.

Priced at 1% to decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting

The Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged has sparked concerns about inflation, with some officials warning that waiting too long to act could risk the need for more aggressive policy later. The current odds of a 50+ bps decrease after the September 2026 meeting remain low at 1%. Recent statements from FOMC officials, including Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, highlight the risks of delaying action on inflation. The 24-hour volume on this market is $199k, indicating some interest in the outcome.

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