Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

29d 11h left
Yes3.8¢
No96.3¢
24h Vol$191K
Total Vol$4.1M
Liquidity$889K

Price History

No price history available

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
YES 54%NO 47%
fomc

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

VOL$355K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
YES 42%NO 59%
fomc

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

VOL$290K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
YES 2%NO 98%
fomc

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

VOL$261K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
YES 2%NO 98%
fomc

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

VOL$130K
summaryMarket Summary

A trader bought $490k of YES at 97% odds an hour ago

The market for a 25 basis point interest rate decrease by the Federal Reserve after the September 2026 meeting is currently priced at 2% YES odds, with no change in the last 24 hours. A significant trade of $490k was made at 97% odds, indicating a strong conviction in the opposite direction. The recent statements from FOMC officials, including Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, have warned about the risks of waiting too long to act against inflation, which could influence future rate decisions. The 24-hour volume stands at $232k.

A trader bought $490k of YES at 97% odds an hour ago

The market for a 25 basis point interest rate decrease by the Fed after the September 2026 meeting is currently priced at 2% YES odds. Despite this low probability, a significant trade of $490k was made in favor of a rate cut, indicating some market participants believe there is a chance of a decrease. The 24-hour volume stands at $337k, showing moderate activity in the market. Recent statements from FOMC officials, including warnings about waiting too long to act against inflation, may be influencing market sentiment.

8 days ago

A trader bought $490k of YES at 97% an hour ago

The market for a 25 basis point interest rate decrease by the Fed after the September 2026 meeting is currently priced at 2% YES odds. Despite this low probability, a significant trade of $490k was made in favor of a rate cut. The 24-hour volume stands at $334k, indicating some activity in the market. The Federal Reserve's recent decision to leave interest rates unchanged has been a point of discussion, with some officials warning about the potential need for more aggressive policy later to combat inflation.

A trader bought $490k of YES at 97% odds an hour ago

The market for a 25 basis point interest rate decrease by the Federal Reserve after the September 2026 meeting is currently priced at 2% YES odds. Despite this low probability, a significant trade of $490k was made in favor of a rate cut at 97% odds, indicating some market participants believe in the possibility. The 24-hour volume stands at $340k, showing moderate activity. Recent statements from FOMC officials, including warnings about waiting too long to act against inflation, may be influencing market sentiments.

8 days ago

A trader bought $490k of NO at 97% an hour ago

The Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged has led to a significant trade of $490k of NO at 97%, indicating a strong bet against a rate decrease. The current odds of a 25 bps decrease after the September 2026 meeting remain low at 2%. The 24h volume has reached $788k, with the recent trade being a notable example of market sentiment. The Fed's decision has been met with warnings from officials that waiting too long to act against inflation could risk the need for more aggressive policy later.

A trader bought $490k of YES at 97% an hour ago

The market for a 25 basis point interest rate decrease by the Federal Reserve after the September 2026 meeting is currently priced at 2% YES odds, with a recent large trade of $490k buying YES at 97%. This trade occurred amidst a backdrop of the Fed's recent decision to leave interest rates unchanged, which has sparked discussion among officials and analysts about the potential need for future action. The 24-hour volume for this market stands at $787k, indicating ongoing interest in the outcome. Recent statements from FOMC officials, including warnings about waiting too long to act against inflation, contribute to the complex landscape surrounding future interest rate decisions.

A trader bought $490k of YES at 97% an hour ago

The market for a 25 basis point interest rate decrease by the Fed after the September 2026 meeting currently prices the likelihood at 2%. A significant trade of $490k was made at 97% in favor of a decrease, indicating a notable bet against the current market odds. The 24-hour volume stands at $777k, showing active interest in this market. Recent statements from FOMC officials, including warnings about waiting too long to act against inflation, have contributed to the market's cautious stance.

9 days ago

A trader bought $490k of NO at 97% an hour ago

The Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged has led to a significant trade of $490k of NO at 97%, indicating a strong bet against a rate decrease. The current odds of a 25 bps decrease after the September 2026 meeting remain low at 2%. The 24-hour volume is $778k, with the recent trade being the most notable activity. The Fed's decision has sparked concerns about inflation, with some officials warning that waiting too long to act could risk the need for more aggressive policy later.

A trader bought $490k of YES at 97% an hour ago

The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive FOMC meeting, maintaining a hawkish tone over inflation concerns. Despite this, a significant trade of $490k was made in favor of a 25 bps interest rate decrease after the September 2026 meeting, at odds of 97%. The current odds of a rate decrease are at 2%, with a 24-hour volume of $871k. The Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged has prompted predictions of at least one rate cut this year, but the market remains skeptical.

9 days ago

A trader bought $490k of YES at 97% an hour ago

The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive FOMC meeting, maintaining a hawkish tone over inflation concerns. Despite this, a significant trade of $490k was made in favor of a 25 bps interest rate decrease after the September 2026 meeting, currently priced at 2%. The 24-hour volume stands at $867k, indicating ongoing interest in the market. The Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged has prompted predictions of at least one rate cut this year.

9 days ago
Discover Markets