US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

44d 11h left
Yes63¢
No37¢
24h Vol$44K
Total Vol$218K
Liquidity$72K

Price History

No price history available

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
YES 30%NO 70%
Iran

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?

VOL$562K
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
YES 32%NO 68%
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US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

VOL$105K
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
YES 34%NO 66%
Iran

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?

VOL$55K
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
YES 95%NO 5%
Iran

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

VOL$33K
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
YES 94%NO 7%
Iran

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

VOL$22K
summaryMarket Summary

Odds to announce end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026, drop 13 pts to 71%

The US announcing an end to the Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026, is currently priced at 71%, following a 13-point drop in odds. This shift comes as diplomatic efforts to ease tensions between the US and Iran gather pace. Despite the decrease, the odds still suggest a likelihood of the blockade ending by the specified date. The 24-hour volume for this market stands at $56,000, indicating ongoing interest in the outcome.

Odds to announce end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026, drop 18 pts to 67%

The US announcing an end to the Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026, is currently priced at 67%, following a significant 18-point drop in odds. This shift comes as diplomatic efforts to ease tensions between the US and Iran gather pace. Despite the decrease in odds, the market still favors an announcement by the given deadline, with $66k in volume traded over the past 24 hours. The situation remains fluid, with various factors influencing the potential outcome.

Priced at 81% to announce end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026

The US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026, is currently priced at 81% after a 2-point drop in the last 24 hours. With $39k in 24-hour volume, the market remains active. Diplomatic efforts to ease tensions between the United States and Iran are ongoing, which may impact the blockade's status. The current odds reflect the market's assessment of the situation, with no large trades over $100k reported in the last 24 hours.

Odds to announce end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026, currently at 81%, down 6 pts in 24h

The US announcing an end to the Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026, is currently priced at 81%, a 6-point decrease over the last 24 hours. This shift in odds may reflect evolving diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran. With $46k in 24-hour volume, the market is actively speculating on the likelihood of this event. Despite the decrease, the odds still favor an announcement, indicating a strong belief in a resolution by the specified deadline.

Priced at 82% to announce end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026

The US announcing an end to the Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026, is currently priced at 82%, with a 3-point decrease in odds over the past 24 hours. Despite this decrease, the market still favors the announcement happening, with $60,000 in volume traded in the last 24 hours. Diplomatic efforts to ease tensions between the US and Iran appear to be ongoing, which may be influencing the market's stance. The situation remains fluid, with various factors at play that could impact the likelihood of the announcement.

Priced at 83% to announce end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026

The US announcing an end to the Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026, is currently favored at 83%. Recent diplomatic efforts to ease tensions between the US and Iran may be contributing to the high odds. Despite a 2-point drop in the last 24 hours, the market remains bullish on the possibility of an announcement. The current volume of $60k in the last 24 hours suggests moderate interest in the market.

Priced at 84% to announce end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026

The US announcing the end of the Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026, is currently priced at 84%, with a 1-point decrease in odds over the past 24 hours. The market has seen $59k in volume over the same period. Diplomatic efforts to ease tensions between the United States and Iran are reportedly gathering pace, which may be influencing the market's stance. The situation remains uncertain, with no large trades exceeding $100k reported in the last 24 hours.

Priced at 85% to announce end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026

The United States is reportedly nearing a deal to end the Iranian blockade, with diplomatic efforts gathering pace. The current odds of an announcement by September 30, 2026, stand at 85%, having dropped 1 point in the last 24 hours. Trading volume has been moderate, with $44k exchanged in the past day. The potential end to the blockade has significant implications for global energy markets and geopolitics, with the US and Iran having previously been on the brink of conflict.

Odds to announce end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026, rise +4 pts to 89%

The United States and Iran may be nearing a deal to end the blockade, with diplomatic efforts gathering pace. The current odds of an announcement by September 30, 2026, stand at 89%, having increased by 4 percentage points. This development comes as European stocks are seen opening higher due to easing tensions between the US and Iran. The 24-hour volume for this market is $41,000.

Priced at 84% to announce end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026

The US announcing an end to the Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026, is currently favored at 84%. Diplomatic efforts to ease tensions between the US and Iran are ongoing, with reports suggesting a potential deal may be imminent. The situation remains fluid, with the US previously planning a significant bombing campaign against Iranian energy infrastructure targets. The current odds reflect a slight decrease of 1 percentage point over the past 24 hours, with $20k in volume traded.

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