Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

43d 11h left
Yes29.5¢
No70.5¢
24h Vol$59K
Total Vol$2.0M
Liquidity$256K

Price History

No price history available

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
YES 10%NO 91%
Oil

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

VOL$746K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?
YES 5%NO 95%
Oil

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?

VOL$442K
summaryMarket Summary

Odds to return to normal by September 30 dropped 6 pts to 21%

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical point of contention, with Iran and Oman engaged in ongoing discussions over its management. Despite reports of a potential deal, the waterway's traffic has yet to return to normal, with only a handful of merchant vessels and tankers attempting to transit the area. The current odds of traffic returning to normal by September 30 stand at 21%, down 6 points. Oil prices have been volatile, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the situation, with a 10% drop in September WTI crude oil futures earlier in the week.

Odds to return to normal by September 30 dropped 6 pts to 21%

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical point of tension, with Iran and Oman engaged in ongoing discussions to reopen the waterway. Despite reports of a potential deal, commercial vessel traffic through the strait has been nearly muted, with only a handful of merchant vessels and tankers attempting to transit. The odds of traffic returning to normal by September 30 have dropped to 21%, down 6 points, as traders price in the uncertainty surrounding the negotiations. With $164k in 24-hour volume, the market remains cautious about the prospects of a breakthrough.

Odds to return to normal by September 30 dropped 7 points to 21%

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical point of contention, with Iran and Oman engaged in ongoing discussions to reopen the waterway to commercial traffic. Despite reports of a potential deal, the number of commercial vessels transiting the strait remains low, and oil prices have been volatile in response to the uncertainty. The current odds of traffic returning to normal by September 30 are 21%, down 7 points in the last 24 hours, with $153k in volume traded over the same period. Iran's demands for the US and its plans to potentially block US and Israeli shipments from the strait have added to the complexity of the negotiations.

Odds to return to normal by September 30 dropped to 23%, down 5 pts

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical point of contention, with Iran and Oman engaged in ongoing discussions to reopen the waterway. Despite reports of a potential deal, commercial vessel traffic through the strait has been nearly muted, with only a handful of merchant vessels and tankers attempting to transit. The proposed plan would give Tehran control of ships entering the Gulf through the strait, a major concession. With a 24-hour volume of $103k, the market currently prices the likelihood of a return to normal by September 30 at 23%, down 5 percentage points.

Odds to return to normal by September 30 dropped to 23%, down 5 pts

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical point of contention, with Iran and Oman engaged in ongoing discussions to reopen the waterway. Despite reports of a potential deal, commercial vessel traffic through the strait has been nearly muted, with only a handful of merchant vessels and tankers attempting to transit. The current odds of traffic returning to normal by September 30 stand at 23%, down 5 percentage points. Oil prices have been volatile, with traders selling on optimism surrounding a potential breakthrough, only to buy back when it became clear that the shipping problem had not been solved.

Odds to return to normal by September 30 dropped 5 pts to 23%

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical point of tension, with commercial vessel traffic nearly muted despite potential peace negotiations. Iran and Oman are engaged in ongoing discussions around the waterway, with a proposed deal that could give Tehran control over ships entering the Gulf. Oil prices have tumbled as traders price in a potential breakthrough, but the situation remains uncertain. The current odds of traffic returning to normal by September 30 are 23%, down 5 points.

Odds to return to normal by September 30 dropped to 24%, down 4 pts

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical point of tension, with commercial vessel traffic nearly muted despite potential peace negotiations. Iran and Oman have agreed in principle on a deal to reopen the strait, but details are still being worked out. The market reflects skepticism, with odds of a return to normal by September 30 at 24%, down 4 points. Trading volume has been moderate, with $97k in 24-hour volume.

Priced at 24% to return to normal by September 30

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical point of tension, with commercial vessel traffic nearly muted despite potential peace negotiations. Iran and Oman have agreed in principle on a deal that could partially reopen the strait, but details are still being worked out. Oil prices have been volatile, with a 10% drop in September WTI crude oil futures earlier in the week on optimism about a potential breakthrough, but have since rebounded. The current odds of traffic returning to normal by September 30 are 24%, with $123k in 24-hour volume.

Priced at 25% to return to normal by September 30

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical point of contention, with Iran and Oman reportedly nearing a deal on shipping lanes, but details are still being worked out. Despite President Trump's reassurances that the strait will reopen soon, commercial vessel traffic has been nearly muted this week. The 24-hour volume of $119k reflects ongoing uncertainty, with traders selling on optimism about a potential breakthrough, only to buy back when it became clear the shipping problem had not been solved. Oil prices have been volatile, with a 10.05% drop in September WTI crude oil futures this week.

Priced at 27% to return to normal by September 30

The Strait of Hormuz traffic is expected to return to normal by September 30, with current odds at 27%. Despite US President Donald Trump's confirmation that the Strait will reopen 'very soon', commercial vessels transiting the area have been nearly muted. An emerging deal between Iran and Oman could reopen the Strait, giving the countries joint control over its traffic. Oil prices have tumbled as traders price in a potential breakthrough, with September WTI crude oil futures down 10.05% for the week.

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