Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for August 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

13d 11h left
Yes9.5¢
No90.5¢
24h Vol$746K
Total Vol$7.9M
Liquidity$720K

Price History

No price history available

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?
YES 5%NO 95%
Oil

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?

VOL$442K
summaryMarket Summary

Odds to return to normal by August 31 drop to 7%, down 3 pts

The Strait of Hormuz traffic is still disrupted, with Iran and Oman engaged in ongoing discussions to reopen the critical waterway. Despite reports of a potential deal, the odds of traffic returning to normal by August 31 have dropped to 7%, down 3 pts. A significant amount of $841k has been traded in the last 24 hours, indicating ongoing interest in the outcome. The potential deal between Iran and Oman could lead to joint management of the strait, but the situation remains uncertain.

Odds to return to normal by August 31 drop to 7%, down 5 pts in 24h

The Strait of Hormuz traffic is still disrupted, but talks between Iran and Oman are ongoing, with reports of a potential deal to reopen the strait. Despite this, the odds of traffic returning to normal by August 31 have dropped to 7%, down 5 percentage points in the last 24 hours, with $1.1M in volume traded in the same period. The potential deal between Iran and Oman could lead to joint management of the strait, but the details are still being worked out. Oil prices have been trending lower, with Brent crude dipping below $80 per barrel, as traders price in a potential breakthrough in the negotiations.

Odds to return to normal by August 31 drop to 7%, down 6 pts in 24h

The Strait of Hormuz traffic is still disrupted, but talks between Iran and Oman are ongoing, with a potential deal to reopen the strait. Iran and Oman have reportedly agreed on a shipping route, and a joint announcement is in its final stages. Despite this, the odds of traffic returning to normal by August 31 have dropped to 7%, down 6 points in the last 24 hours, with $1.1M in volume traded. The potential deal has led to a decrease in oil prices, with Brent crude dipping below $80 per barrel.

Odds to return to normal by August 31 drop to 8%, down 5 pts in 24h

The Strait of Hormuz traffic is still disrupted, but talks between Iran and Oman are ongoing, with a potential deal in the final stages. The proposed agreement could lead to joint management of the strait, giving Tehran control over ships entering the Gulf. Despite this, the odds of traffic returning to normal by August 31 have dropped to 8%, down 5 points in the last 24 hours, with $885k in volume traded. Oil prices have also been trending lower, with Brent crude dipping below $80 per barrel.

Odds to return to normal by August 31 dropped -6 pts to 8%

The Strait of Hormuz traffic is still disrupted, with an emerging deal between Iran and Oman potentially leading to the reopening of the strait. Despite this, the odds of traffic returning to normal by August 31 have dropped to 8%, with a 24-hour volume of $939k. Iran and Oman are reportedly close to agreeing on joint management of the strait, which could give Tehran control over ships entering the Gulf. However, the situation remains uncertain, with oil prices trending lower due to the potential breakthrough.

Odds to return to normal by August 31 dropped to 8%, down 5 pts in 24h

The Strait of Hormuz traffic is still disrupted, with a potential deal between Iran and Oman to reopen the waterway being discussed. Despite reports of progress, the market remains skeptical, with the odds of traffic returning to normal by August 31 dropping to 8%. The 24-hour volume is $929k, indicating ongoing interest in the outcome. Iran's proposed plan to block US and Israeli shipments from the strait has raised concerns over supply disruptions, contributing to the current uncertainty.

Odds to return to normal by August 31 drop to 8%, down 5 pts in 24 hours

The Strait of Hormuz traffic is still disrupted, with a potential deal between Iran and Oman to manage the strait in the final stages. Despite this, the odds of traffic returning to normal by August 31 have dropped to 8%, down 5 points in the last 24 hours, with $909k in volume traded in the same period. A deal between Iran and Oman could lead to joint control over the strait's traffic, but the details are still being worked out. The market remains uncertain, with crude oil prices trending lower.

Odds to return to normal by August 31 drop to 8%, down 5 pts in 24h

The Strait of Hormuz traffic is still disrupted, with a potential deal between Iran and Oman to reopen the strait in the works. Despite reports of progress in negotiations, commercial vessels transiting the strait remain nearly muted. The current odds of traffic returning to normal by August 31 are 8%, down 5 percentage points in the last 24 hours, with $923k in volume traded in the same period. A deal between Iran and Oman could give Tehran control over ships entering the Gulf through the strait, but the details are still being worked out.

Odds to return to normal by August 31 drop to 9%, down 5 pts in 24 hours

The Strait of Hormuz traffic is still disrupted, with a potential deal between Iran and Oman to reopen the strait in the works. Despite reports of progress in the talks, the odds of traffic returning to normal by August 31 have dropped to 9%, down 5 percentage points in the last 24 hours. The 24-hour volume is $909k, indicating ongoing interest in the market. Iran's proposed plan to block US and Israeli shipments from the strait has raised concerns over supply disruptions, contributing to the current uncertainty.

Priced at 10% to return to normal by August 31

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical point of tension, with Iran and Oman reportedly close to an agreement on joint management of the waterway. Despite this, commercial vessel traffic through the strait remains muted, with only a handful of merchant vessels and tankers attempting to transit. The current odds of traffic returning to normal by August 31 are 10%, down 3 points in the last 24 hours, with $660k in volume traded. An emerging deal between Iran and Oman could lead to the reopening of the strait, but details are still being worked out and the situation remains uncertain.

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