Will the US government be shut down on Oct 1, 2026?

If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

45d 1h left
Yes22.5¢
Yes77.5¢
24h Vol$12K
Total Vol$136K
Open Interest$70K

Price History

No price history available

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YES 6%NO 94%
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Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026?
YES 25%NO 76%
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Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026?

VOL$77K
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YES 22%NO 79%
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VOL$51K
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?
YES 54%NO 47%
Politics

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?

VOL$46K
Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Oct 1, 2026?
YES 19%NO 82%
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VOL$45K
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? — Todd Blanche
YES 95%NO 5%
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Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026?
YES 44%NO 56%
Politics

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026?

VOL$29K
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 15, 2026?
YES 2%NO 99%
Politics

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 15, 2026?

VOL$24K
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026?
YES 38%NO 63%
Politics

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VOL$21K
Will Jeanine Pirro announce their departure as United States Attorney for the District of Columbia before Aug 7, 2026?
YES 5%NO 96%
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VOL$20K
Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2027?
YES 3%NO 97%
Politics

Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2027?

VOL$19K
Will Trump's first announced Attorney General pick be confirmed as Attorney General before Sep 1, 2026?
YES 82%NO 19%
Politics

Will Trump's first announced Attorney General pick be confirmed as Attorney General before Sep 1, 2026?

VOL$15K
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves HHS Secretary in before 2027?
YES 22%NO 79%
Politics

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VOL$14K
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YES 30%NO 71%
Politics

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VOL$14K
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027?
YES 65%NO 36%
Politics

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027?

VOL$13K
Will Max Miller be out as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026?
YES 31%NO 70%
Politics

Will Max Miller be out as U.S. representative before Nov 3, 2026?

VOL$13K
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YES 3%NO 97%
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Will any part of Venezuela be the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029? — Venezuela

VOL$10K
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