Solana ETF Approval Odds Hit 90% – Is Now the Best Time to Buy SOL?
Solana (SOL) is back in the spotlight — and this time, it’s not just about fast transactions or meme coins. According to Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas, there's now a 90% chance that a Spot Solana ETF will be approved as early as July 2025. The crypto market is taking this seriously. SOL price is surging, futures open interest is nearing all-time highs, and on-chain activity is heating up.
With this potential approval on the horizon, the big question arises — is now the right time to buy SOL, or is this just another hype cycle in the crypto market?
What Would a Solana ETF Actually Do?
Spot ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) offer a regulated investment vehicle for institutions and retail investors to gain exposure to digital assets — without needing a crypto wallet or navigating decentralized applications. A Solana ETF would directly hold SOL tokens and track the asset’s price chart and real-time market value, much like how Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs currently operate.
This structure would open the door for institutional investors and large asset managers to gain exposure to Solana through familiar brokerage platforms. No need for private key management, smart contract interactions, or operational burdens associated with crypto security.
What’s Fueling the 90% Approval Confidence?
This isn’t empty speculation. Key indicators are pointing toward a likely green light:
The SEC has asked issuers to update their S-1 filings, suggesting active regulatory review.
Polymarket approval odds surged to 91%, indicating strong consensus from the prediction markets.
Solana futures open interest has jumped to $7.54 billion — a sign of increased institutional participation and bullish momentum.
Technical analysts are highlighting a bullish flag on the SOL price chart, with potential upside to $335.
Bloomberg Intelligence has noted this cycle feels more grounded — less about retail euphoria, more about coordinated moves from serious players.
Solana Today: More Than Just a Fast Chain
Solana has moved well beyond its FTX baggage. It’s now recognized as one of the most scalable and active Layer 1s in the crypto industry.
Here’s why:
Decentralized exchanges like Jupiter and Drift are thriving, offering new DeFi tools and features.
Uptime and throughput have improved dramatically — addressing previous network instability.
NFTs, prediction markets, and memecoins are all driving active wallet growth.
Projects in decentralized finance and real-world asset tokenization are increasingly choosing Solana for its performance advantages.
Even in a multichain environment, Solana continues to offer unmatched speed and cost efficiency, making it a serious contender among digital asset networks.
SOL Price Outlook: What the Charts Are Saying
SOL is currently hovering around $165–$170 — up 4% in the past 24 hours. It’s showing bullish momentum but still trading well below its all-time high near $260.
A potential roadmap:
Pre-approval rally (underway now)
Volatility around ETF announcement, typical of “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamics
Post-approval accumulation phase with possible ETF inflows, echoing Ethereum’s recent trajectory
Some expect SOL to hit $300–$350 by Q3 if investor access widens through ETF listings and broader asset manager participation increases.
Is It Too Late to Buy SOL?
That depends on your strategy and risk appetite.
Why investors are jumping in now:
The potential approval of spot ETFs could offer clear upside potential
SOL is still trading far below ATH
The broader crypto market is trending positive, helped by AI narratives and easing monetary policy
Real growth in dApps, DeFi, and token approval tools reduces friction and risk
But here’s what could go wrong:
Delays in regulatory approval
Market-wide corrections triggered by macroeconomic factors
Solana’s network, while improved, still carries some technical vulnerabilities
Overcrowding: too many bullish bets too fast could lead to sharp pullbacks
Is It Too Late to Buy SOL?
That depends on your strategy and risk appetite.
Why investors are jumping in now:
The potential approval of spot ETFs offers clear upside potential
SOL is still trading far below ATH
The broader crypto market is trending positive, helped by AI narratives and easing monetary policy
Real growth in dApps, DeFi, and token approval tools reduces friction and risk
But here’s what could go wrong:
Delays in regulatory approval
Market-wide corrections triggered by macroeconomic factors
Solana’s network, while improved, still carries some technical vulnerabilities
Overcrowding: too many bullish bets too fast could lead to sharp pullbacks
Ethereum saw a 25% rise following its ETF news, but past performance doesn’t guarantee similar results.
Beyond the ETF: Long-Term Fundamentals
If you’re not chasing the short-term trade, Solana’s long-term thesis still holds strong.
Growing developer community building across DeFi, gaming, and AI
Improved UX with hardware wallet integrations and browser extensions
Innovations around smart contract allowances and decentralized identity are enhancing security and transparency
Asset classes like real estate, collectibles, and financial instruments are being explored on-chain via Solana
SOL’s position as a fast, efficient Layer 1 is only being solidified further.
A Generational Entry Point or Exit Liquidity?
If approval odds translate into a finalized ETF, this could kick off Solana’s next major cycle. The ingredients are all there: regulatory progress, market momentum, and expanding institutional exposure to digital assets.
This moment feels similar to when Bitcoin and Ethereum were awaiting their own ETF green lights. While no outcome is guaranteed, setups like this are rare.
The real question is: Will this become the next wave, or is the tide already shifting?
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