Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Expired 1d 13h ago
Yes38.5¢
No61.5¢
24h Vol$79K
Total Vol$1.1M
Liquidity$62K

Price History

No price history available

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?
YES 72%NO 28%
Iran

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

VOL$190K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?
YES 65%NO 36%
Iran

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?

VOL$138K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
YES 34%NO 67%
Iran

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?

VOL$76K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?
YES 78%NO 23%
Iran

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?

VOL$69K
summaryMarket Summary

Priced at 93% to continue through August 15

The Israel-Iran ceasefire is currently priced at 93% to continue through August 15, with $125k in volume traded over the past 24 hours. Despite ongoing tensions and negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, the market remains confident in the ceasefire's continuation. Iran has issued a set of demands to the US, including an end to threats and military action, as a condition for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, these developments have not significantly impacted the market's expectations for the ceasefire.

7 days ago
Iran signals Strait of Hormuz deal close, but ceasefire dispute lingersIran Says Hormuz Stays Closed Until U.S. Meets Six Sweeping DemandsAmid Strait of Hormuz talks, Iran publishes list of demands for US

Priced at 94% to continue through August 15

The Israel x Iran ceasefire is currently favored to continue through August 15, with the odds standing at 94%. Recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz, including Iran's demands for the US to meet certain conditions before reopening the strait, have not significantly impacted the market. Iran has announced it is nearing an agreement with Oman over control of the Strait of Hormuz, but the reopening of the strait remains uncertain. The market volume has been moderate, with $116k traded in the last 24 hours.

7 days ago
Iran signals Strait of Hormuz deal close, but ceasefire dispute lingersAmid Strait of Hormuz talks, Iran publishes list of demands for US

Priced at 94% to continue through August 15

The Israel x Iran ceasefire is currently priced at 94% to continue through August 15, with $117k in 24-hour volume. Iran has been in discussions with Oman over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but has issued a set of demands to the US before it will consider reopening the vital waterway. These demands include an end to US threats and military action, a permanent end to the war, and compensation for damages. Despite these developments, the market remains confident in the ceasefire continuing, with the current odds reflecting a high likelihood of this outcome.

8 days ago
Iran signals Strait of Hormuz deal close, but ceasefire dispute lingersIran Says Hormuz Stays Closed Until U.S. Meets Six Sweeping DemandsAmid Strait of Hormuz talks, Iran publishes list of demands for US

Priced at 93% to continue through August 15

The Israel-Iran ceasefire is currently priced at 93% to continue through August 15, with $112k in volume traded over the past 24 hours. Despite ongoing tensions and negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, the market indicates a high likelihood of the ceasefire holding. Iran has laid out several demands for the US, including an end to threats and military action, in order for the strait to be reopened. The situation remains uncertain, but the market suggests that a continuation of the ceasefire is the most likely outcome.

8 days ago
Iran signals Strait of Hormuz deal close, but ceasefire dispute lingersIran Says Hormuz Stays Closed Until U.S. Meets Six Sweeping DemandsAmid Strait of Hormuz talks, Iran publishes list of demands for US

Priced at 93% to continue through August 15

The Israel-Iran ceasefire is currently priced at 93% to continue through August 15, with $132k in 24-hour volume. Iran has been in discussions with Oman over the management of the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran seeking to bar US and Israeli ships from the waterway and requiring compensation from hostile countries. Despite these negotiations, the ceasefire remains in place, with no significant changes in the odds over the past 24 hours. The situation in the region remains complex, with various countries and interests at play.

8 days ago
Iran signals Strait of Hormuz deal close, but ceasefire dispute lingersIran Wants to Bar US, Israeli Ships From Hormuz in DealAmid Strait of Hormuz talks, Iran publishes list of demands for US

Priced at 93% to continue through August 15

The Israel-Iran ceasefire is currently priced at 93% to continue through August 15, with $134k in 24-hour volume. Iran has been engaged in discussions with Oman over the management of the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran seeking to bar US and Israeli ships from the waterway and requiring compensation from hostile countries. Despite these developments, the ceasefire remains favored to hold. Iran's demands for the US include an end to threats and military action, a permanent end to the war, and withdrawal of US naval and military presence.

8 days ago
Iran signals Strait of Hormuz deal close, but ceasefire dispute lingersIran Says Hormuz Stays Closed Until U.S. Meets Six Sweeping DemandsIran Wants to Bar US, Israeli Ships From Hormuz in DealAmid Strait of Hormuz talks, Iran publishes list of demands for US

Priced at 93% to continue through August 15

The Israel-Iran ceasefire is currently priced at 93% to continue through August 15, with $134k in 24-hour volume. Iran has been making demands for the US to meet in order to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, including an end to US threats and military action, and compensation. Despite these demands, the ceasefire remains in place for now. Iran's negotiations with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz are ongoing, with Iran seeking to bar US and Israeli ships from the waterway. The situation remains uncertain, with the US outside formal negotiations and strains on US munitions supplies complicating Washington's options.

8 days ago
Iran signals Strait of Hormuz deal close, but ceasefire dispute lingersIran Says Hormuz Stays Closed Until U.S. Meets Six Sweeping DemandsIran Wants to Bar US, Israeli Ships From Hormuz in DealAmid Strait of Hormuz talks, Iran publishes list of demands for US

Priced at 93% to continue through August 15

The Israel-Iran ceasefire is currently favored to continue through August 15, with the odds standing at 93%. Recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz, including Iran's announcement that it is nearing an agreement with Oman over control of the waterway, have not significantly impacted the odds. Iran has warned that the reopening of the strait will depend on several conditions, including compensation from the US. The market volume has been moderate, with $140k traded in the last 24 hours.

8 days ago
Iran signals Strait of Hormuz deal close, but ceasefire dispute lingersIran Says Hormuz Stays Closed Until U.S. Meets Six Sweeping Demands

Priced at 93% to continue through August 15

The Israel x Iran ceasefire is currently priced at 93% to continue through August 15, with $130k in 24-hour volume. Iran has been in discussions with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran seeking to bar US and Israeli ships from the waterway and requiring compensation from hostile countries. Despite these developments, the ceasefire remains likely to hold, with the market reflecting a high probability of continuation. Iran's demands for the US include an end to threats and military action, a permanent end to the war, and withdrawal of US naval and military presence.

8 days ago
Iran signals Strait of Hormuz deal close, but ceasefire dispute lingersIran Says Hormuz Stays Closed Until U.S. Meets Six Sweeping DemandsAmid Strait of Hormuz talks, Iran publishes list of demands for US

Priced at 93% to continue through August 15

The Israel x Iran ceasefire is currently favored to continue through August 15, with 93% odds. Recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz, including Iran's demands for the US to meet certain conditions before reopening the strait, have not significantly impacted the market. Iran has announced it is nearing an agreement with Oman over control of the Strait of Hormuz, but the reopening of the strait remains uncertain. The market's high odds suggest a strong expectation that the ceasefire will hold, despite ongoing tensions and negotiations.

8 days ago
Iran signals Strait of Hormuz deal close, but ceasefire dispute lingersIran Says Hormuz Stays Closed Until U.S. Meets Six Sweeping DemandsAmid Strait of Hormuz talks, Iran publishes list of demands for US
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